Taiwan's new leader maybe be "too nice" to keep power
By PAUL MOONEY in Taipei
The death last week of President Chiang Ching-kuo, which brought
Nationalist China's Chiang dynasty to an end after more than 60 years,
leaves a political vacuum and raises serious doubts about Taiwan's
future.
The late president of the Republic of China on Taiwan, who had
succeeded his father, Chiang Kai-shek, failed to find an acceptable
successor before his death. The question now is whether the new
president, Lee Teng-hui, can hold onto power in the collective leader
ship that is expected to rule the island and whether the reform
movement begun by the younger Chiang will be carried on.
Lee, the son of a rice and tea farmer, smoothly assumed the presidency
in accordance with the constitution hours after the death of Chiang.
But many observers predict that he will rule in name only. Lee,
although handpicked by Chiang, is a native Taiwanese in a government
dominated by mainlanders, and he lacks ties with the party, military
and security establishments.
Although the island is 85 percent Taiwanese, mainlanders have
monopolized political power since retreating here after their defeat by
the Chinese Communists in 1949.
"We think he is a good and capable man," said Frank Hsieh, a member of
the Central Committee of the opposition Democratic Progressive Party.
"But what we don't know is whether or not he can get the real power to
do the things he wants to do."
Collective Leadership
It is widely believed that until a strong national leader emerges, the
island will actually be ruled by a collective leadership made up of,
among others, President Lee, Premier Yu Kuo-hwa, Kuomintang
Secretary-General Lee Huan and General Hau Pei-tsun, chief of the
general staff. However, none of these now appears to have sufficient
power to take complete control.
Some say that Lee, who received a doctorate in agricultural economics
from Cornell University, is not cut out for the political infighting
that is expected to take place as different power groups compete for
control of the government.
"He's not the kind of person to grab power," said Lu Ya-li, professor
of political science at National Taiwan University. "He's too retiring
and too nice. While he probably won't be an entirely symbolic
president, he will not be a very powerful figure either."
There is serious concern here over how the collective leadership, made
up of moderates and conservatives within the party, will handle the
far-reaching political and economic reforms begun by Chiang.
When he became president in 1978, Chiang began a program of
"Taiwanization," bringing native Taiwanese into high government
positions and transforming the Kuomintang from a party of mainlanders
to one that is now more than 70 percent Taiwanese. Chiang realized that
the change was necessary if the party was to retain its dominant
position in a changing political environment.
More recently, in September 1986, he allowed an opposition party to be
formed for the first time. Chiang also is credited with the lifting of
martial law in July of last year and the lifting of a newspaper ban
earlier this month.
Travel to Mainland
Most notable was the decision in October to allow local residents,
separated from their relatives for almost 40 years, to visit mainland
China.
This move, which could have been carried out only with the support of
the president, signaled a softening in the government's long-standing
policy of "three nos" - no compromise, no contacts and no negotiations
with the mainland Chinese. Without a proponent of Chiang's stature, it
is unlikely that this process will proceed much further in the near
future.
At the time of Chiang's death, the ruling party also was working out
the details of a face-saving plan to hold elections for Taiwan's
congressional bodies.
In order to retain its claim as the sole government of China, the
Kuomintang has refused to hold elections for these seats. Of the 316
seats in parliament, an estimated two-thirds are held by legislators in
their late 70s and 80s, elected on mainland China in 1948.
Until recently, the government has ruled out elections on the ground
that it cannot allow them until the mainland is retaken.
Despite the late president's unchallenged authority, conservative
elements in the party and the military are believed to have resisted
and opposed many of the changes he advocated.
Military's Role
Unless there is serious unrest, however, it does not seem likely that
the military will take an active role. The military lacks popular and
economic support and experience in running the government.
Furthermore, the United States, Taiwan's most important ally, would
frown on any type of military interference.
However, the military still has great influence in government
decision-making and cannot be ruled out as a force on the island.
Members of the Democratic Progressive Party, relatively safe while
Chiang was alive, are aware of the delicate situation they are in and
have been careful to avoid any confrontation with the government since
the president's death.
Respect for Lee
Despite the strong odds against Lee emerging as an assertive and strong
leader of the country, he is widely respected - even among the
opposition - as an intelligent man of great character, and there is
hope in many quarters that he will somehow evolve into a powerful
president.
"Since there are many conservatives in the old power structure, Lee may
not be able to do much now," said Chang Chung-tung, professor of
history at National Taiwan University, "but gradually the old guard
will disappear, and once younger people come up, Lee will have more
support."
Attention is now focusing on the vacant seat of party chairman,
formerly held by Chiang. It is believed that whoever holds the
chairmanship will be in a good position to seize power.
