Doubts about clout of new leader cloud future of Taiwan
By PAUL MOONEY in Taipei
For more than 60 years, Nationalist China has been ruled by the
indisputable authority of two men, Chiang Kai-shek and his son Chiang
Ching-kuo. With the death of the son Wednesday, the Chiang dynasty
begun by the father on the mainland more than 60 years ago has come to
an end.
The president’s death came as no surprise. Although a government
spokesman declared him in good health less than two weeks ago, Chiang
had suffered from diabetes and a heart condition for years and had been
confined to a wheelchair since late last year.
Yet, he failed to find an acceptable successor before his death,
leaving a political vacuum at the top and serious doubts about the
island’s future.
The question on everybody’s mind now is whether Lee Teng-hui, Taiwan’s
new president, can hold onto power in the collective leadership that is
expected to rule the island and whether the reform movement begun by
the late president will continue.
Lee Teng-hui, the son of a rice and tea-growing farmer, smoothly
assumed the presidency in accordance with the constitution, just hours
after the death of Chiang. But many observers predict he will rule in
name only. Despite being handpicked by Chiang, Lee is a native
Taiwanese in a government dominated by mainlanders, and he lacks ties
with the party, military and security establishment.
Although the island is 85 percent Taiwanese, mainlanders have
monopolized the government since retreating here after being defeated
at the hands of the Chinese communists in 1949.
Collective rule expected
“We think he is a good and capable man,” said Frank Hsieh, a member of
the central committee of the opposition Democratic Progressive Party.
“But what we don’t know is whether or not he can get the real power to
do the things he wants to do.”
It is widely believed that until a strong national leader emerges, the
island will be ruled by a collective leadership made up of Kuomintang
party leaders. Some say that Lee, who received his doctorate degree in
agricultural economics from Cornell University, is not cut out for the
political infighting that is expected to take place as different power
groups vie for control of the government.
“He’s not the kind of person to grab power,” said Lu Ya-li, professor
of political science at National Taiwan University. “He’s too retiring
and too nice. While he probably won’t be an entirely symbolic
president, he will not be a very powerful figure either.”
Serious concern has been expressed over how the collective leadership,
made up of moderates and conservatives within the party and the
military, will handle the series of far-reaching political and economic
reforms initiated by Chiang Ching-kuo.
When he became president in 1978, Chiang began a program of
Taiwanization, bringing native Taiwanese into high government positions
and transforming the Kuomintang from a party of mainlanders to one that
is now made up of more than 70 percent Taiwanese.
In September 1986 he allowed an opposition party to be formed for the
first time on the island. He is also credited with lifting martial law
in July and lifting a newspaper ban earlier this month.
Most notable was the decision late last year to allow residents to
visit relatives on mainland China. The move signaled a softening in
government’s longstanding “Three Noes” policy, namely, no compromise,
no contacts and no negotiations with the Chinese Communists. Without
someone of Chiang’s stature, it is unlikely that this process will
proceed much further for the time being.
Planned for elections
At the time of his death, the ruling party was also working out the
details of a face-saving plan to hold elections for members of Taiwan’s
congressional bodies. In order to retain its claim as the sole
government of China, the party has refused to hold elections for these
seats. Up until recently the government has ruled out elections on the
ground that it cannot do so until the mainland is retaken.
Despite the late president’s unchallenged authority, conservative
elements in the party and the military are believed to have resisted
and opposed many of the changes he advocated. However, analysts in
Taipei believe that while a slowdown may occur initially while the
players size up the situation, the trend toward reform is approved by
the people, and it would be difficult to turn back now.
Without serious unrest, it does not seem likely the military will take
an active role. The military lacks mass and economic support and
experience in running the government.
Some fear the conservatives might look for some excuse to crack down on
the opposition in order to expand their influence. Opposition members
are aware of their delicate situation and have been careful to avoid
any confrontation with the government immediately following the late
president’s death.
However, they have formed a committee to study the government’s
political, social and economic policies in the coming weeks and have
vowed to fight any move to reverse the democratization process.
Despite the strong odds against Lee emerging as an assertive and strong
leader of the country, he is widely respected as an intelligent man of
great character, and the hope in many quarters is that he will somehow
evolve into a powerful president.
“Since there are many conservatives in the old power structure Lee may
not be able to do much now,” said Chang Chung-tung, professor of
history at National Taiwan University, “but gradually the old guard
will disappear and once younger people come up Lee will have more
support.”
